10:04 PM - Japan's Ruthless Recovery
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shoes,Haruko Sakaida has dressed Japanese beauties for half a
century, but these days the 75-year-old kimono maker frets that a
critical accessory--her preferred brand of crisp white socks, known
as tabi--might soon vanish in the shelves. In June, she says, she
was shocked to discover that the Meiji-era stocking manufacturer
Fukusuke had filed for bankruptcy protection following 121 many
years in business--joining a lengthy checklist of venerable
companies to possess failed lately in Japan. It was explained to us
that absolutely nothing is going to change and that the company
will continue to make superior tabi, she says amid bolts of ornate
cloth that fill her Tokyo store. To be honest, although, I am
worried.Once famous Japanese brands are foundering like never prior
to. Because the starting of 2002, the casualty list has included
Secaicho, maker of the Panther running shoes popular throughout the
'64 Tokyo Olympics; Tsukuda, a toy wholesaler that turned goods
like Dakko-chan dolls and the Rubik's Cube into national
sensations; Tohato, a confectionery famed for its caramel corn and
raisin tarts, and Toh Toh Shu Honpo, a distillery established in
1690. Whilst such failures evoke a sense of loss among
tradition-minded Japanese customers, they are more essential for
what they say concerning the hollowness of the nation's widely
touted economic recovery.A globe desperate for economic well being
is eager to locate signs that Japan is back, however the optimism
is premature. Japan might be the fastest-growing large economy
within the globe last quarter, as one Morgan Stanley currency
analyst wrote final week, but that does not necessarily mean it's
on the mend. Accurate, Japan has now enjoyed six straight quarters
of development, but the recovery story is primarily based primarily
on robust exports and a 30 percent bump at Tokyo's lowly Stock
Exchange. It ignores persistent deflation (Japan's consumer price
index slumped 0.four percent in June, year on year), falling
domestic consumption (supermarket revenue shrank 5 percent in July)
and huge overcapacity in virtually every industry.The roll contact
of bankrupt businesses is convincing proof with the deep disrepair
in Japan's economic climate. Established businesses are failing at
an unprecedented rate in Japan, according to new statistics from
Teikoku Databank, which found that companies in business for over
30 many years now account for more than a quarter of all
bankruptcies, up from just five percent in the late 1980s. Japan
remains far more hostile to mergers and acquisitions than the
United states or Europe, so there is no cycle of corporate death
and rebirth. While Secaicho has folded its doors in Japan, a
comparable American sneaker business, 80-year-old Converse, is
becoming acquired by Nike for $305 million. The collapse of
time-honored companies, argues Kan Tsutagawa, financial news editor
for the Yomiuri Shimbun, is of symbolic significance towards the
gridlock facing the Japanese financial program as a entire.The
death rate for venerable Japanese brands is increasing to get a
number of factors: inability to adhere to trends, debt overhangs
from the 1980s, competitors from China and other emerging markets
and, maybe most important, the fact that most of them served a
domestic market ravaged by many years of recession. The bulk with
the fallen elders were primarily based outside main cities, and
therefore were vulnerable to anemic regional economies: Fukusuke
was based in Sakai in western Japan, for example. None was big
enough to fall within the infamous class of Japanese zombie
companies: debt-laden major producers or national retailers of the
sort deemed too large to fail by creditors or the government.None
of the bankrupt brand names is really a mere victim of
circumstance, although. At Tohato Inc. a second-generation
president borrowed heavily to broaden into golf-course improvement
prior to his otherwise viable business collapsed in March with
unpaid loans totaling 46 billion yen. The issue isn't that the
program lets these companies fail: it is the way they fail. Japan
lacks the network of buyout specialists, M&A lawyers, deal
making bankers, and other vulture capitalists who in most modern
economies help businesses devour struggling rivals whilst they're
still viable--if only to buy the brand name and poach loyal
customers. I don't recall a single instance of a competitor buying
a famous brand in Japan, says Shiro Abe of Teikoku Databank. With
no buyout industry, struggling companies end up as bankrupt wards
of their bankers.The outlook for these golden oldies remains poor.
New tax data show that seven in 10 Japanese companies are losing
money. Small and medium businesses are particularly hard hit
because they cater to Japanese consumers, who have shown no sign of
changing their miserly spending habits of late. Looking at the
corporate universe, I don't see any marked improvement, especially
in the lower-rated categories, says credit-ratings expert Akio
Mikuni. His forecast: more nonperforming loans, more bills picked
up by the government and increased indebtedness. As far as we are
concerned, the picture hasn't brightened at all.Even as Japan
tosses out venerable brands, it is still less likely than other
nations to let businesses die, or to create new ones. Based on
numerous surveys, Japan ranks at the bottom of all industrialized
states for the rates of both corporate failure and new business
creation. High entry costs, tax rules that penalize venture capital
and excessive regulation make launching new companies a riskier
affair in Japan than almost anywhere else in the industrialized
globe. Masaaki Kanno, chief economist for JP Morgan in Tokyo, calls
the low corporate birthrate one of Japan's biggest structural
problems. We don't have a lengthy tradition of being independent or
taking risk.There's 1 gargantuan exception to this rule: the
government. Many economists now warn of creeping financial
socialism, whereby Tokyo is taking control of all major banks and
their weakest clients. In this view, the government's recent 2
trillion yen bailout of Resona Bank, Japan's fifth largest lender,
signaled a willingness to pass risk onto taxpayers. The result:
Resona has kept up lending towards the small and medium enterprises
that most creditors now shun. Now, another main bailout looms.
Final week Japanese media reported that Mitsui Mining, with a
negative net worth of some 35 billion yen, would be the first to
seek protection from the Industrial Revitalization Corp. of Japan,
established in May 2003 to rehabilitate heavily indebted companies.
It's as if 'Too Big to Fail' has become our national doctrine, says
Kanno.Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has challenged this
doctrine, but, up to now, he has been fighting a losing battle to
slow its advance. That could change following ruling-party
elections later this month, and national elections that will
follow. Polls suggest Koizumi will win easily, bolstering his power
to reform a program that allows beloved old brand names to die,
creates few new ones and shifts economic power into government
hands. So even the weak indicators of recovery might have 1
profound effect: they are getting a lot of positive press, which
can only raise Koizumi's chances of making real change.I like
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