8:09 PM - Its Independents Day
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Hollywood says a presidential candidate is supposed to look like,
Ron Paul is not it. At 72, wearing mall-walking footwear and an
inquisitive smile, he looks like a retired obstetrician, which
he's. His platform is hardly from central casting, either. He not
just desires U.S. troops home from Iraq, he desires them house in
the rest with the planet. He wants to abolish an alphabet of
federal agencies and also the income tax, dismantle the Patriot
Act, reconnect the dollar towards the cost of gold, decriminalize
prostitution and call an finish towards the drug war. Seated within
the Home Speaker's Lobby, he speaks matter-of-factly, like a
physician describing a simple delivery. This is my freedom message,
says the Texas representative. People have to be left alone.Much of
the world dismisses Paul as a libertarian crank. But mainstream
candidates from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to Rudy Giuliani
and Mitt Romney have good reason to view him. That reason's called
the new Hampshire primary. Usually unpredictablethere's not even a
date set for it yetthe primary is much more mysterious now because
a record 44 percent of voters have registered undeclared.
Suspicious of established politics, with an antiwar sentiment
stretching back to Vietnam, they decide at the last minute. Since
they can vote in either party's race, their migrations select the
outcome in both. In 2000, two thirds asked for GOP ballots,
boosting John McCain and dooming Bill Bradley, who was going after
exactly the same voters.This time, Obama, Giuliani and Mc Cain are
the large names fishing in the sea of independents. But
circumstances have altered: it is expected that two thirds of these
voters will take component in the Democratic contest, which might
be Obama's main, or last, opportunity. His yearning to change a
broken political system is really a good hook, but only if he can
convince voters he has the guts and ability to do it. He has work
to do: a recent Marist School poll shows Clinton top him amongst
independents 38 to 29 percent. A hot Democratic race could be bad
for McCain and Giuliani, whose appeal rests in component on their
perceived distance from GOP orthodoxy. The arithmetic with the
undeclared is one reason Romney is sprinting towards the correct
and why Mike Huckabee is obtaining a appear within the state.As
George W. Bush's Republican coalition falls apart, its rougher
edges become more visible and Paul's small-government, isolationist
message gets heard. Numerous New Hampshirites see the state's Live
Totally free or Die motto as an post of faith, and they blame
mushrooming federal deficits as a lot on the GOP as around the
Democrats. Independents are so mad about investing they can't see
straight, says Jennifer Donahue of Saint Anselm School in
Manchester. These voters loathe the war in Iraq, too. They are as
antiwar as anyone right here, perhaps much more so, she says.For
now, Paul is a blip on New Hampshire's radar; inside a recent poll,
he stood at 5 percent amongst independents. But that could alter.
He's banked more than $5 million, recently raised more within the
state than most other candidates, has a massive Internet presence
and just purchased $1.one million in New Hampshire Television ads.
His employees is inexperienced, but intelligent. Andy Smith, a
pollster at University of New Hampshire, says Paul could get ten to
20 percent of the vote within the GOP race. That would be a
dramatic story, but perhaps not one most Republicans would want to
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